Dragon at the Gates!
China threat is real, much bigger than that from the western neighbor.
Although the rogue neighbor to the west continues to use terrorism as a tool and follow the doctrine of ‘bleeding India with a thousand cuts’, India no longer views Pakistan as its main threat, rather considers the terror state as a secondary concern, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries.
In the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, a recent US Intelligence Report has revealed India’s defense priorities and signalled a clear change of policy. “India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed,” the US Defense Intelligence Agency has said in its World Threat Assessment Report for 2025. The report forecasts that India’s strategic priorities will be centered around demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing the military power.
India appears to be adopting a tougher stance towards the neighbor to the north. This is a seismic shift in India’s approach to China. What’s behind India’s hardening posture against the mighty dragon? Well, there are some legitimate reasons!
A Ruthless Expansionist Neighbor
“China is intensifying pressure on its neighbors and adversaries through diplomatic, economic, and military means, as President Xi Jinping continues a massive military buildup and prepares the nation for a prolonged war,” said Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, in April 2025, sounding alarm over China’s expanding military aggression. He warned that China’s strategy extends well beyond traditional military threats, including cyber attacks, economic coercion, and cognitive warfare.
China under Xi Jinping has become increasingly powerful and aggressive. President Xi has repeatedly made it clear that a “world-class military” is essential to his vision of China’s national rejuvenation by 2049, the 100th anniversary of People’s Republic of China. By 2049, he wants to ensure the nation “leads the world in terms of composite national strength and international influence.”
India shares around 3500 kilometer long border with a neighboring country that not only harbors imperialist ambitions, but also maintains the largest active military globally, spends almost four times more than India on defense, has triple the number of nuclear warheads that India has, and continues with its forward deployment of over 100,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control though disengagement has taken place in eastern Ladakh — China’s rise as a top global military power poses a major threat to India’s national security and territorial integrity as its neighbor to the north has a history of hostility & betrayal, a history of stabbing India in the back.
China perceives India as its formidable rival on the global stage. China’s economic and strategic clout is complicating India’s geopolitical standing. “The rise of China as a dominant economic and strategic force adds complexity, creates competition, and hampers India’s effort to be the natural leader for the Global South,” says General Upendra Dwivedi, India’s Army Chief.
A Dangerous Nexus
As the latest episode of the four-day conflict with Pakistan shows, the Sino-Pakistani nexus is fully operational. The integration of Chinese military platforms into Pakistan’s arsenal is clearly evident. China has emerged as the largest exporter of military hardware to Pakistan. And not just militarily, China also renders diplomatic support to Pakistan on all the international forums where it is cornered on the question of perpetration of terrorism.
Beijing seems to avoid direct conflict with India, at least for now. Beijing is using Pakistan as a proxy to destabilize India. By supporting Pakistan militarily and diplomatically, Beijing intends to keep India occupied with regional conflicts. Asymmetric warfare against India is central to Beijing’s strategy to limit India’s global influence.
The Two-Front Dilemma
India is probably the only country with two active and long unresolved borders with nuclear-armed neighbors. India’s geographic location leaves the country no choice — like a boxer facing two opponents in the ring, the country has Pakistan to the west and China to the north. Both of them have territorial disputes with India, which naturally makes them strategic partners. The threat of a collusive partnership between the two military adversaries remains a grave concern.
“Two-front war is no longer a possibility, it’s a reality.” General Upendra Dwivedi says. “When you have unsettled borders to your north and west, you don’t know which side the battle will commence and where it will end. So, you should be prepared for both fronts.” says the Army Chief.
Eyes on the Chicken’s Neck
Very few regions in the world hold as much strategic vulnerability and national importance as India’s Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as Chicken’s Neck. This narrow, 22 km wide strip of land in North Bengal is the sole terrestrial connection between mainland India and its northeastern states.
China’s growing influence in Bangladesh represents a strategic vulnerability of India’s Northeast. China is reportedly aiding Bangladesh in reviving an old World War II airbase at Lalmonirhat, just 12-15 kilometers from the Indian border. The airfield lies only 135 kilometers from the Siliguri Corridor. China’s involvement in reviving an airbase so close to the Chicken’s Neck raises serious concerns. It’s a cause for alarm!
Water as a Weapon
China has approved the construction of the world’s largest dam, stated to be the planet’s biggest infra project costing $137 billion, on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet close to the Indian border, raising concerns about its impact on downstream countries like India and Bangladesh.
The dam underscores China’s geopolitical aspirations. Critics point to China’s history of using trans-boundary rivers as strategic tools to exert influence over downstream neighbors. The Brahmaputra dam’s potential to disrupt water flows, combined with its sheer scale, has heightened geopolitical tensions in South Asia.
Renowned Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney describes China’s dam-building activities as “water weaponisation”, leveraging its control over trans-boundary rivers for geopolitical advantage. “The project is to harness the force of a nearly 3,000 meter drop in the Brahmaputra’s height when the river, just before entering India, takes a U-turn around the Himalayas to form the world’s longest and steepest canyon. By setting out to dam the Brahmaputra there, China is seeking to effectively weaponise water against India,” says Chellaney.
Shubhra Atreya
Content Writer
IT Department
SVSU, Meerut
